December is the time of the year when all magazines usually publish their analysis of the past year. Each declares its list (sometimes ranked) of newsmakers, events, winners, losers and just about every other category. However I believe most of them are going to miss the one event which I’ll remember 2012 for – the Indian blackout, the biggest power cut in the history of mankind. It will be missed because it is neither political nor entertaining. This essay is an attempt to provide the event the gravity it deserves.
The essay is divided into 3 parts. These parts aren’t related so can be read in any order or even individually.
Part 1 – Introduction (What makes Electricity complex?)
Part 2 – The Incident (What caused the Blackout?)
Part 3 – Future of Energy
Appendix – A) Q&A B) Further Reading
Part 1 – What makes Electricity complex?
Electricity is unlike any other commodity. None of our 5 senses (See, Smell, Touch, Taste, Hear) help us understand Electricity. Yet, it exists all around us for most appliances today run on it.
Avoiding too much technical detail, it would be fair to say that the core complexity in the Supply Chain of Electricity can be divided into properties concerning its matter (Electricity itself) and the medium (Grid).
a) Matter: Properties of Electricity
o Electricity, in contrast to Gas or Water, cannot be stored economically. It must be created as it is consumed to maintain the frequency on the network. In other words, supply should always match the demand. However, because we use electric appliances in all walks of life, the demand is sensitive to a wide range of factors – daylight, temperature, wind, TV schedule, public lifestyle etc. Technically speaking every time we switch an appliance ON or OFF, we have altered the demand. This sensitivity makes it difficult to precisely forecast demand, and consequently to balance it with required supply.
o Electricity in a Grid does not follow the commercial path. It only follows the path of least resistance. So it is difficult to ‘pipe’ the flow from the right sellers to the right buyers.
b) Medium: Grid
Someone rightly said that if Alexander Graham Bell were to come back to life he would not recognise any part of today’s telecom technology, but if Thomas Edison or Nikola Tesla came back to life they would be perfectly comfortable with today’s Electricity. That’s the Grid for you in short – a complex, colossal, archaic mesh which is difficult to change.
o Physically, the Grid contains millions of different parts. Each part is an electrical device which has certain properties (resistance, inductance etc) and limitations (thermal, stability etc). A violation of any operational limit on any of these million devices causes a fault whose impact may vary from small to catastrophic.
o Assuming Generators are also part of the Grid, their limitation poses the next serious challenge. To match supply with sensitive demand (as explained earlier), one must be able to control supply (generation). In other words, this requires flexibility to increase or decrease generation rapidly. However generators react at different speeds to instructions. While a Nuclear plant may need 1-2 days notice to change its output, a hydro plant may do the same in seconds. Consequently, it requires availability of the right generation type and swift judgement to ensure constancy of electric supply is maintained.
To summarise, providing electricity to a nation continuously is not an easy job. In addition to managing Demand-Supply imbalance, all the constraints of all parts in the Grid must be respected. However by diligent planning and quickly reacting to situations the desired flow of electricity can be enabled. Obviously this is not as easy as it sounds, but with the right technology and skill, it is very much in the realm of possibility.
Part 2: What caused the blackout?
As mentioned earlier, the Supply & Demand in a Grid should always match (strictly speaking, be near enough to keep the system secure). Now, consider the following case:
In the above example the Grid is composed of three ‘interconnected’ regional grids. On the whole, the system appears healthy as total supply matches the total demand. However if for any reason either of the links A, B or C breaks, then it could be a catastrophe. Depending on what contingency plans exists and how power flows immediately after the loss of the link, either the entire Grid or a few regions (say R1 and R3) may be shutdown. This is what happened during the Indian blackout.
There are 5 regional grids in India. Except Southern Region all others are connected by AC links (synchronous). Southern Region is connected via DC links (asynchronous) and hence is cut off from disturbances in rest of India (and therefore was immune to the blackout).
30th July: The interface between Western Region (WR) and Northern Region (NR) had several outages on that day. The entire load was therefore on one line (Bina-Gwalior) which tripped, separating WR from NR. Since WR was providing power to NR just before the breakage, the power now flowed in a different route (WR->ER->NR). This sudden increase in NR-ER interface tripped that link too. Within seconds Northern Region became an island with severe power shortage and it collapsed.
31st July: Despite the blackout on the previous day, surprisingly many outages were still present in the inter-regional interfaces on the very next day. A similar set of events once again led to breakage of WR-NR link. The resulting pressure on this day was a bit different and sections of WR-ER got isolated. This aggravated the problem and soon all three grids (NR, ER, WR) collapsed.
A much more detailed analysis of the blackout can be found in the report submitted by the official Enquiry Committee commissioned to investigate this incident. The report can be accessed here.
Summary:
As the report states, no single factor was responsible for the event. There wasn’t any equipment failure either. What caused the event can perhaps be called the loopholes in the system (market rules, system operation, training, communication etc). Though a complex infrastructure like Grid witnesses incidents on a daily basis, a complete blackout is a rare event because it takes the weaknesses in all areas to coincide at one moment to make the worst happen. A low probability by definition, but as we have learnt - the hard way – it cannot be ruled out.
As the report states, no single factor was responsible for the event. There wasn’t any equipment failure either. What caused the event can perhaps be called the loopholes in the system (market rules, system operation, training, communication etc). Though a complex infrastructure like Grid witnesses incidents on a daily basis, a complete blackout is a rare event because it takes the weaknesses in all areas to coincide at one moment to make the worst happen. A low probability by definition, but as we have learnt - the hard way – it cannot be ruled out.
Despite the challenges such disasters are preventable by performing solid preventive analysis, contingency planning and quick situational response. This incident has exposed these weaknesses in the current system.
Part 3: (Future of Energy)
Of all the issues affecting mankind today, Energy is perhaps the most critical. Such is its importance that it sits at the heart of today’s world politics and dictates much of future global strategy. However it is interesting to know that Energy took this centre-stage only recently. To understand this issue one must look at the historical development of the importance of Energy.
Ancient world - End of Middle ages:
Work, to be done, requires energy. During the thousands of years when man was a hunter-gatherer he depended solely on his muscle power to do his work. Around 10, 000 years ago he finally settled down and started domesticating animals; they became the first external stores of energy which man put to work (farming). During this time he also learnt to use fire better and wood became his first fuel. This is how mankind lived for thousands of years until the scene changed dramatically just 3-4 centuries ago.
18th cent – Now:
The invention of steam engine is among the biggest turning points in the history of mankind. It was the first time man employed a heat engine to perform work and this formed the basis of most engines to this day. Steam Engine started the Industrial Revolution which further hiked the dominance of Coal. The age of fossil fuels began. Coal was soon replaced by petroleum as the primary fuel to run heat engines (which improved to have internal combustion) and things have not changed ever since.
The invention of steam engine is among the biggest turning points in the history of mankind. It was the first time man employed a heat engine to perform work and this formed the basis of most engines to this day. Steam Engine started the Industrial Revolution which further hiked the dominance of Coal. The age of fossil fuels began. Coal was soon replaced by petroleum as the primary fuel to run heat engines (which improved to have internal combustion) and things have not changed ever since.
With the unlocking of energy in fossil fuels, in just over 100 years the world became a different place.
Future:
Opinions differ on this matter, but I firmly believe that in the next 30-40 years the rule of fossil fuels will be seriously challenged. This journey has already begun but faces severe resistance in the form of powerful Oil industry, lack of political courage (against lobbyists) and public ignorance.
If just one invention (Internal Combustion Engine) could begin the rule of Oil then perhaps another technological breakthrough may put an end to it. Many bright individuals and firms are engaged in this pursuit. If companies like J Craig Venter Institute, which created hitherto unimaginable things like ‘Artificial life’ (first cell with synthetic genome) are involved, then there is reason to hope. Until that technology arrives hopefully more and more people will become aware of the situation and choose their daily options wisely.
Meanwhile, other advancements are making energy usage more efficient. In addition some countries are initiating projects to make their energy consumption programmable. This is a fundamental change – so far demand has had a free rein, with supply struggling to catch up. If demand could also be managed in addition to supply, then the game becomes much easier. This transformation will need the entire industry (utility companies, manufactures, consumers etc) to change, so it is some years away, but this is definitely going to happen.
APPENDIX
A) Q&A
All views expressed here are personal.
o Blackout exposes the issues in our Transmission. Is that our biggest problem?
Though the blackout was purely a Transmission failure, the bigger problem for India has generally been Distribution which is afflicted by serious losses (theft) and poorer management (under State ownership). The (supply) chain is only as strong as the weakest link, therefore even Distribution needs to improve to realise full benefits.
India also needs to unbundle retailing of power from its distribution. Once separated, introducing competition in retail and distribution will remove most of the current Distribution problems. There is no effective medicine like competition; however barring a few cities, distribution is a local monopoly (public sector) in India.
A lot can also be done regarding the quality of power. Besides investing in Green technologies at home, India could source clean power from neighbours eg. Nepal has staggering amounts of hydroelectric power. Unfortunately this opportunity has not been traded (Nepal wants to include dislocation costs in tariff and India doesn’t). India’s partnership with Bhutan (again hydropower) has been very successful though.
o Who could be a role model for India?
Continental Europe is perhaps the best example of a well managed synchronous grid (ENTSO-E) in the world. Like India, it consists of various regional grids (owned and run by each country). Despite run by different countries the overall European Grid has one of the best service levels providing high power quality. They also have regional coordination centers (links: Coreso & SSC) which pool information from individual countries to predict, prevent or address any issue in advance or in real-time.
Europe can also serve as a good role model for future Energy Strategy. Under the leadership of EU, most European countries are working towards admirable targets. Its Europe 2020 policy mandates all countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20%, increase the share of renewable energy to 20%, and achieve a 20% increase in energy efficiency. Other policies (Third Energy Package) are aiming to remove the barriers to cross-border trading of energy, which means everyone in Europe will have access to the cheapest source of power no matter where in the continent it may exist. There are also plans to link the European network to North Africa, thus tapping bountiful solar energy.
Not surprisingly the report also mentions the high standard of ENTSO-E (previously called UCTE).
o Will India adopt renewable energy in a big way in the next 10-20 years?
Unlikely. India sits on huge reserves of coal and hence is not motivated to consider alternatives seriously. This is one of the reasons why India’s commitment at Global Climate conventions has so far been low to negative. India’s position on measuring Carbon commitment has been ‘per capita’ (Carbon per Person) which works in its favour but is not in the spirit of the cause. Any binding obligation to carbon cuts also affects the economy growth which Indian governments are not willing to risk.
It is my belief that allegiance to country comes much after allegiance to the planet. This problem demands countries and people to look beyond their primary interests.
o Why is Energy a burning issue? Why was it not an issue 100 yrs ago?
Two words – Quantity & Quality.
∑ Energy Need = Population X Services X (Energy/Service)
In this equation: Population is increasing (at current estimates it will certainly touch 9 billion no matter what steps are taken). For better quality of life, more services will be available. Technology will help improve efficiency (reduce Energy/Service). However, on the whole, total Energy need is set to increase exponentially.
If this energy is obtained from fossil fuels, then it will have devastating environmental consequences. Hence the quality of power is also crucial. The combination of these two factors makes Energy a burning issue.
o Germany has announced complete conversion to renewable energy by 2050? But renewable energy by it nature is intermittent, so how will it work?
It will work because Germany is part of the synchronous European Grid. Due to this association it can automatically export/import power from neighbouring countries in real-time when the output from renewables is insufficient.
o Is Nuclear a good option, especially after the Japanese disaster?
Every technology comes with certain side-affect; nuclear is no different. So the real question is - what should be the criteria for judging whether a technology is good or bad? If it is the number of human causalities, then more people die each year using cars than from all the nuclear disasters put together. Should we ban cars?
Nuclear is by far the cheapest and cleanest source of bulk energy. This fact carries tremendous importance. Energy consumption of any country is different each day, but the profile is nearly the same (changes only with season). A sample profile is shown below.
The challenge with Nuclear is that it cannot be changed quickly. But a large proportion of daily demand is constant as shown in the figure. Instead of burning coal or gas to source this predictable part of energy need, nuclear could be the ideal place to procure it. Other flexible sources (coal, hydro) could be used to fill the variable part of the energy curve. Because nuclear is both cheap and clean, such a transition will result in a significantly greener and affordable source of power for a country. Hence nuclear is an inseparable ingredient for a greener future.
Critics of Nuclear energy must also realise that the other available alternatives (mostly Coal and Gas), in addition ruining the environment, also kill scores of people, albeit slowly and indirectly (pollution).
o How does using Electric gadgets (like Electric Car) help if much of Electricity is produced by burning coal?
Using petrol is using 100% fossil fuel. But using Electricity is not 100% fossil as a part of Electricity is also produced from renewables. Therefore Electric appliances are relatively greener. As more renewable sources are added to the Grid in future, Electricity will become much more greener.
o When can we say that Indian Power sector has come of age?
Metrics can be misleading so I’ll use symbolism to answer this. The maturity of the power industry in a country can be judged by the connotation attached to the word ‘candle’. The day when ‘candle’ is treated not as a basic utility (power cuts) but as a luxury item (dinners, celebrations etc) then India would have arrived.
B) Further reading (related but not necessarily referred)
(* removed a suggested book as that was not referred to for writing this piece)
Films:
- An Inconvenient Truth (a life changing documentary. This Oscar winner has been made part of school curriculum in some countries)
- Home (by Yann Arthus-Bertrand)
- Planet Earth, Human Planet, One Life or any David Attenborough film (to appreciate our first allegiance)
- Who Killed the Electric Car?
- The Revenge of the Electric Car (a bit boring film but a reassuring message)
Web:
Ted Talks (www.ted.com)
Thanks for reading. Hope you have found this informative. Please feel free to leave any questions or comments.
